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Politics

SCOTUS & courts

TrumpJan 1

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Before Jul 1, 2027

Before Apr 1, 2027

$313,871,952 vol4 more

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

MarketPays outOdds

Before Jul 1, 2027

2.05x

Before Apr 1, 2027

2.98x

Before Jan 1, 2027

5.90x

Before Dec 1, 2026

11.7x

$313,871,952 vol2 more

1 of 3

New US-Iran nuclear deal this year?

Before 2028

3.08x

Before Jan 20, 2029

--

$39,336,561 vol8 markets

How many U.S. visas will be revoked this year?

At least 100,000

--

At least 150,000

--

$10 vol6 markets

Scottish referendum called before 2027?

Before 2027

1.01x

Before 2028

--

$11,636 vol4 markets

Will Zelenskyy and Putin talk during Trump’s term?

Vladimir Putin

2.89x

Before 2027

1.01x

$218 vol2 markets

When will Zack Polanski leave as Green Party leader?

Before Nov 1, 2026

--

Before Jan 1, 2027

--

$60 vol2 markets

Will a Yosemite land deal with Kingsbarn be announced?

Yes

--

No

--

Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?

Yes

--

No

--

When will Xi Jinping visit Taiwan?

Before 2030

--

Before 2027

--

$5 vol4 markets

Will Xi meet a major US AI CEO this month?

Yes

--

No

--

Will Steve Witkoff visit Russia?

Before Oct 1, 2026

--

Before Jan 1, 2027

--

$3 vol2 markets

What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?

G7

1.02x

World Bank Group

1.44x

$160,466 vol9 markets

Who will visit the White House before 2027?

Claudia Sheinbaum

1.02x

John Ternus

John Ternus

John Ternus

3.18x

$29 vol23 markets

Who will attend a White House Press Briefing this year?

Dan Bongino

1.02x

Benny Johnson

--

$13 vol9 markets

Will Trump name another news outlet for his White House ban?

Yes

--

No

--

When will the White House announce an end to its press ban?

Before Nov 1, 2026

--

Before Oct 1, 2026

--

$0 vol2 markets

Who will attend the 2026 White House Correspondents’ Dinner?

George Stephanopoulos

George Stephanopoulos

George Stephanopoulos

--

Ivanka Trump

Ivanka Trump

Ivanka Trump

--

$8 vol6 markets

Will California’s billionaire tax take effect?

Yes

3.08x

No

1.01x

Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

Before Jan 1, 2029

--

Before Jan 1, 2027

--

$5 vol5 markets

When will Wales call a snap election?

Before Jul 1, 2027

--

Before Jan 1, 2028

--

$0 vol2 markets

Will Wales announce an independence referendum?

Yes

--

No

1.16x

How many ties will JD Vance break this year?

4

--

0

--

$12 vol10 markets