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International

All markets
Congress
International
Iran
Local
NYC
Recurring
SCOTUS & courts
Trump
Trump

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Before Jul 1, 2027
2.05x
Before Apr 1, 2027
2.98x
$313,871,948 vol6 markets
International

Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?

Yes
1.31x
No
1.23x
$2,040 vol1 market
International

Will Zelenskyy and Putin talk during Trump’s term?

Vladimir Putin
2.89x
Before 2027
1.01x
$218 vol2 markets
International

When will Zack Polanski leave as Green Party leader?

Before Nov 1, 2026
--
Before Jan 1, 2027
--
$60 vol2 markets
International

When will Xi Jinping visit Taiwan?

Before 2030
--
Before 2027
--
$5 vol4 markets
International

Will Xi meet a major US AI CEO this month?

Yes
--
No
--
$0 vol1 market
International

Will Steve Witkoff visit Russia?

Before Oct 1, 2026
--
Before Jan 1, 2027
--
$3 vol2 markets
International

What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?

G7
1.02x
World Bank Group
1.44x
$160,466 vol9 markets
International

When will Wales call a snap election?

Before Jul 1, 2027
--
Before Jan 1, 2028
--
$0 vol2 markets
International

Will Wales announce an independence referendum?

Yes
--
No
1.16x
$0 vol1 market
International

Will Trump visit Greenland?

Before Jan 1, 2027
--
Before Jan 1, 2028
--
$3 vol3 markets
Trump

How many U.S. visas will be revoked this year?

At least 100,000
--
At least 150,000
--
$0 vol6 markets
Elections

Who will be Premier of Victoria after the 2026 election?

Ben Carroll
--
Danny O’Brien
--
$0 vol5 markets
International

Which companies will sign a Venezuelan oil agreement?

ExxonMobil
1.05x
Shell
1.04x
$10 vol3 markets
International

Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Diosdado Cabello
--
Delcy Rodríguez
--
$8 vol8 markets
Trump

Will the U.S.–Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement enter into force?

Yes
--
No
--
$1 vol1 market
International

Will the US exit the Outer Space Treaty?

Yes
--
No
1.13x
$0 vol1 market
Trump

Which USMCA outcomes will occur this year?

Formal 16-year extension
--
Formal USMCA amendment
--
$8 vol8 markets
Iran

When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?

Before Nov 1, 2026
9.41x
Before Dec 1, 2026
--
$0 vol4 markets
International

Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands?

Yes
--
No
1.07x
$0 vol1 market
International

Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline?

Before Nov 1, 2026
--
Before Oct 1, 2026
--
$0 vol3 markets
Trump

When will Trump raise tariffs on Canada?

Before Oct 1, 2026
--
Before Dec 1, 2026
--
$0 vol4 markets
Trump

When will Trump lower tariffs on Canada?

Before Dec 1, 2026
--
Before Jan 1, 2027
--
$0 vol4 markets
International

Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump’s term?

Yes
1.42x
No
--
$18,996 vol1 market