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Tech & Science

Big Tech & Business

AIDec 31

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Claude

Gemini

$29,193,614 vol6 more

Best AI at the end of 2026?

MarketPays outOdds

Claude

1.33x

Gemini

10.4x

ChatGPT

9.41x

LLaMA

93.5x

$29,193,614 vol4 more

1 of 3

Big Tech & Business

Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?

Yes

1.01x

No

1.44x

$15,708 vol1 market

Tesla

Tesla Optimus on sale before 2026?

Yes

1.01x

No

--

$20,530 vol1 market

Starship manned mission to Mars launched before 2030?

Yes

--

No

1.02x

$17,691 vol1 market

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Yes

--

No

--

$45,781 vol1 market

Will a court find that OpenAI has infringed the copyright of the New York Times?

Yes

--

No

--

$13,104 vol1 market

NASA lands on the moon?

Before 2028

--

Before 2030

--

$63,494 vol4 markets

When will Yang–Mills and the Mass Gap be resolved?

Before 2027

--

Before 2028

--

$0 vol6 markets

xAI corporate adoption rate in September

Above 4.5%

--

Above 4.75%

--

$0 vol7 markets

Top Text to Video AI this week

Alibaba

--

ByteDance

--

$0 vol10 markets

FDA decision: Venglustat by Sanofi (this year)

Yes

1.01x

No

1.01x

US test scores in Reading this year?

No significant difference

1.02x

Significant decrease

--

$59,006 vol3 markets

Will the US lose measles elimination status this year?

Yes

--

No

--

Number of US data centers at the end of 2026?

At least 5,300

--

At least 5,400

--

$9 vol17 markets

Most popular AI this week

Z.ai

--

Anthropic

--

$0 vol7 markets

Most popular AI this week

Anthropic

--

DeepSeek

--

$0 vol7 markets

Top AI model in September?

claude-opus-4-7

--

claude-opus-5-high

--

$0 vol6 markets

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

Zhipu AI

1.03x

Deepseek

--

$233,890 vol13 markets

OpenRouter AI token usage in October

Above 450T tokens

--

Above 500T tokens

--

$5 vol12 markets

OpenRouter token usage in Sep 28–Oct 4

Above 142T tokens

--

Above 144T tokens

--

$0 vol15 markets

Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai)

Claude

--

Dola

--

$0 vol9 markets

Top Coding AI this week

ChatGPT

--

Claude

--

$0 vol9 markets