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2026 Midterms
Trending
Frequency
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Peru
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Peru
Referendums
Senate
House
Governor
Balance of Power
Live
Kalshi Forecast
Democrats
have a
91%
chance
to control the House
Early forecasts
· 34 days to Election
47
Democrats
Dem seats
218 to win
218
to win
Republicans
Rep seats
387
212 current
Democratic seats
219 current
Republican seats
Timeline
Live
Races by rating
Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
Safe Democratic
Total 45
AR-02
D
90%
AZ-01
D
99%
AZ-02
D
97%
AZ-06
D
99%
CA-04
D
100%
CA-07
D
100%
CA-09
D
97%
CA-11
D
100%
CA-12
D
100%
CA-14
D
100%
CA-22
D
99%
CA-27
D
97%
CA-29
D
100%
CA-34
D
100%
CA-37
D
100%
CA-41
D
97%
CA-48
D
90%
CA-49
D
97%
CO-05
D
90%
CO-08
D
97%
FL-23
D
99%
FL-28
D
90%
IN-01
D
97%
KS-03
D
90%
KY-06
D
90%
ME-02
D
97%
MO-08
D
90%
NH-01
D
99%
NJ-05
D
97%
NJ-09
D
97%
NV-03
D
97%
NY-03
D
97%
NY-12
D
90%
NY-17
D
97%
OH-05
D
90%
OK-05
D
90%
OR-05
D
98%
PA-17
D
99%
SC-01
D
90%
TX-17
D
90%
TX-23
D
90%
TX-35
D
99%
UT-02
D
90%
VA-05
D
90%
WA-03
D
97%
Likely Democratic
Total 0
No races
Lean Democratic
Total 2
PA-08
D
67%
TX-15
D
65%
Toss-up
Total 1
Dem 0
Rep 1
NM-02
R
51%
Lean Republican
Total 1
MT-01
R
70%
Likely Republican
Total 0
No races
Safe Republican
Total 386
AK-AL
R
97%
AL-01
R
90%
AL-02
R
90%
AL-03
R
90%
AL-04
R
90%
AL-05
R
90%
AL-06
R
90%
AL-07
R
90%
AR-01
R
90%
AR-03
R
90%
AR-04
R
90%
AZ-03
R
90%
AZ-04
R
90%
AZ-05
R
90%
AZ-07
R
90%
AZ-08
R
90%
AZ-09
R
90%
CA-01
R
90%
CA-02
R
90%
CA-03
R
97%
CA-05
R
90%
CA-06
R
99%
CA-08
R
90%
CA-10
R
90%
CA-13
R
97%
CA-15
R
90%
CA-16
R
90%
CA-17
R
90%
CA-18
R
90%
CA-19
R
90%
CA-20
R
90%
CA-21
R
97%
CA-23
R
90%
CA-24
R
90%
CA-25
R
90%
CA-26
R
90%
CA-28
R
90%
CA-30
R
90%
CA-31
R
90%
CA-32
R
90%
CA-33
R
90%
CA-35
R
90%
CA-36
R
90%
CA-38
R
90%
CA-39
R
90%
CA-40
R
100%
CA-42
R
90%
CA-43
R
90%
CA-44
R
90%
CA-45
R
97%
CA-46
R
90%
CA-47
R
97%
CA-50
R
90%
CA-51
R
90%
CA-52
R
90%
CO-01
R
90%
CO-02
R
90%
CO-03
R
99%
CO-04
R
90%
CO-06
R
90%
CO-07
R
90%
CT-01
R
90%
CT-02
R
90%
CT-03
R
90%
CT-04
R
90%
CT-05
R
98%
DE-AL
R
90%
FL-01
R
90%
FL-02
R
98%
FL-03
R
90%
FL-04
R
90%
FL-05
R
90%
FL-06
R
90%
FL-07
R
90%
FL-08
R
90%
FL-09
R
90%
FL-10
R
90%
FL-11
R
90%
FL-12
R
90%
FL-13
R
97%
FL-14
R
90%
FL-15
R
90%
FL-16
R
90%
FL-17
R
90%
FL-18
R
90%
FL-19
R
90%
FL-20
R
90%
FL-21
R
90%
FL-22
R
90%
FL-24
R
90%
FL-25
R
90%
FL-26
R
90%
FL-27
R
90%
GA-01
R
90%
GA-02
R
90%
GA-03
R
90%
GA-04
R
90%
GA-05
R
90%
GA-06
R
90%
GA-07
R
90%
GA-08
R
90%
GA-09
R
90%
GA-10
R
90%
GA-11
R
90%
GA-12
R
90%
GA-13
R
90%
GA-14
R
90%
HI-01
R
90%
HI-02
R
90%
IA-01
R
99%
IA-02
R
90%
IA-03
R
97%
IA-04
R
90%
ID-01
R
90%
ID-02
R
90%
IL-01
R
90%
IL-02
R
90%
IL-03
R
90%
IL-04
R
99%
IL-05
R
90%
IL-06
R
90%
IL-07
R
90%
IL-08
R
90%
IL-09
R
90%
IL-10
R
90%
IL-11
R
90%
IL-12
R
90%
IL-13
R
90%
IL-14
R
90%
IL-15
R
90%
IL-16
R
90%
IL-17
R
97%
IN-02
R
90%
IN-03
R
90%
IN-04
R
90%
IN-05
R
90%
IN-06
R
90%
IN-07
R
90%
IN-08
R
90%
IN-09
R
90%
KS-01
R
90%
KS-02
R
90%
KS-04
R
90%
KY-01
R
90%
KY-02
R
90%
KY-03
R
90%
KY-04
R
90%
KY-05
R
90%
LA-01
R
90%
LA-02
R
90%
LA-03
R
90%
LA-04
R
90%
LA-05
R
90%
LA-06
R
90%
MA-01
R
90%
MA-02
R
90%
MA-03
R
90%
MA-04
R
90%
MA-05
R
90%
MA-06
R
90%
MA-07
R
90%
MA-08
R
90%
MA-09
R
90%
MD-01
R
90%
MD-02
R
90%
MD-03
R
90%
MD-04
R
90%
MD-05
R
90%
MD-06
R
90%
MD-07
R
90%
MD-08
R
90%
ME-01
R
90%
MI-01
R
90%
MI-02
R
90%
MI-03
R
97%
MI-04
R
97%
MI-05
R
90%
MI-06
R
90%
MI-07
R
97%
MI-08
R
97%
MI-09
R
90%
MI-10
R
97%
MI-11
R
90%
MI-12
R
90%
MI-13
R
90%
MN-01
R
90%
MN-02
R
97%
MN-03
R
90%
MN-04
R
90%
MN-05
R
90%
MN-06
R
90%
MN-07
R
90%
MN-08
R
90%
MO-01
R
90%
MO-02
R
90%
MO-03
R
90%
MO-04
R
90%
MO-05
R
97%
MO-06
R
90%
MO-07
R
90%
MS-01
R
90%
MS-02
R
90%
MS-03
R
90%
MS-04
R
90%
MT-02
R
90%
NC-01
R
97%
NC-02
R
90%
NC-03
R
90%
NC-04
R
90%
NC-05
R
90%
NC-06
R
90%
NC-07
R
90%
NC-08
R
90%
NC-09
R
90%
NC-10
R
90%
NC-11
R
90%
NC-12
R
90%
NC-13
R
90%
NC-14
R
90%
ND-AL
R
90%
NE-01
R
90%
NE-02
R
98%
NE-03
R
90%
NH-02
R
97%
NJ-01
R
90%
NJ-02
R
90%
NJ-03
R
90%
NJ-04
R
90%
NJ-06
R
90%
NJ-07
R
99%
NJ-08
R
90%
NJ-10
R
90%
NJ-11
R
90%
NJ-12
R
90%
NM-01
R
90%
NM-03
R
90%
NV-01
R
97%
NV-02
R
90%
NV-04
R
97%
NY-01
R
90%
NY-02
R
90%
NY-04
R
97%
NY-05
R
90%
NY-06
R
90%
NY-07
R
90%
NY-08
R
90%
NY-09
R
90%
NY-10
R
90%
NY-11
R
98%
NY-13
R
90%
NY-14
R
90%
NY-15
R
90%
NY-16
R
90%
NY-18
R
97%
NY-19
R
98%
NY-20
R
90%
NY-21
R
90%
NY-22
R
97%
NY-23
R
90%
NY-24
R
90%
NY-25
R
90%
NY-26
R
90%
OH-01
R
97%
OH-02
R
90%
OH-03
R
90%
OH-04
R
90%
OH-06
R
90%
OH-07
R
90%
OH-08
R
98%
OH-09
R
98%
OH-10
R
90%
OH-11
R
90%
OH-12
R
90%
OH-13
R
97%
OH-14
R
90%
OH-15
R
90%
OK-01
R
90%
OK-02
R
90%
OK-03
R
90%
OK-04
R
90%
OR-01
R
90%
OR-02
R
90%
OR-03
R
90%
OR-04
R
90%
OR-06
R
90%
PA-01
R
97%
PA-02
R
90%
PA-03
R
90%
PA-04
R
90%
PA-05
R
90%
PA-06
R
90%
PA-07
R
97%
PA-09
R
90%
PA-10
R
99%
PA-11
R
90%
PA-12
R
90%
PA-13
R
90%
PA-14
R
90%
PA-15
R
90%
PA-16
R
90%
RI-01
R
90%
RI-02
R
90%
SC-02
R
90%
SC-03
R
90%
SC-04
R
90%
SC-05
R
90%
SC-06
R
90%
SC-07
R
90%
SD-AL
R
90%
TN-01
R
90%
TN-02
R
90%
TN-03
R
90%
TN-04
R
90%
TN-05
R
90%
TN-06
R
90%
TN-07
R
90%
TN-08
R
90%
TN-09
R
90%
TX-01
R
90%
TX-02
R
90%
TX-03
R
90%
TX-04
R
90%
TX-05
R
90%
TX-06
R
90%
TX-07
R
90%
TX-08
R
90%
TX-09
R
90%
TX-10
R
90%
TX-11
R
90%
TX-12
R
90%
TX-13
R
90%
TX-14
R
90%
TX-16
R
90%
TX-18
R
90%
TX-19
R
90%
TX-20
R
90%
TX-21
R
90%
TX-22
R
90%
TX-24
R
90%
TX-25
R
90%
TX-26
R
90%
TX-27
R
90%
TX-28
R
97%
TX-29
R
90%
TX-30
R
90%
TX-31
R
90%
TX-32
R
90%
TX-33
R
90%
TX-34
R
94%
TX-36
R
90%
TX-37
R
90%
TX-38
R
90%
UT-01
R
90%
UT-03
R
97%
UT-04
R
90%
VA-01
R
94%
VA-02
R
98%
VA-03
R
90%
VA-04
R
90%
VA-06
R
90%
VA-07
R
97%
VA-08
R
90%
VA-09
R
90%
VA-10
R
97%
VA-11
R
90%
VT-AL
R
90%
WA-01
R
90%
WA-02
R
90%
WA-04
R
90%
WA-05
R
90%
WA-06
R
90%
WA-07
R
90%
WA-08
R
97%
WA-09
R
99%
WA-10
R
90%
WI-01
R
99%
WI-02
R
90%
WI-03
R
97%
WI-04
R
90%
WI-05
R
90%
WI-06
R
90%
WI-07
R
90%
WI-08
R
90%
WV-01
R
90%
WV-02
R
90%
WY-AL
R
90%
Rating changes · Past month
Combos
House
U.S. House national popular vote margin of victory?
Democrats, 0 to 2%
4
%
Democrats, 10 to 12%
18
%
$3,877,361 vol
10 markets
House
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Below 210
7
%
210-213
2
%
$78,770 vol
12 markets
House
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
193-197
4
%
203-207
4
%
$69,608 vol
11 markets
House
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Directional)
Above 211
1
%
Above 214
1
%
$42 vol
14 markets
Seat Count
How many House seats will Democrats win in Florida?
10
2
%
4
1
%
$27 vol
9 markets
House
How many House seats will Democrats win in California?
Below 44
2
%
49
2
%
$24 vol
8 markets
Seat Count
How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?
Above 2
2
%
0
1
%
$15 vol
4 markets
Seat Count
How many House seats will Democrats win in Utah?
Above 2
1
%
0
1
%
$12 vol
4 markets
Seat Count
How many House seats will Democrats win in Tennessee?
Above 2
4
%
0
1
%
$12 vol
4 markets
Seat Count
How many House seats will Democrats win in Louisiana?
Above 2
1
%
0
1
%
$12 vol
4 markets
Show all 10 markets
More markets
142 events
Market
Pays out
Odds
Mayor
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
$197,655,992 vol
Nithya Raman
1.67
x
58
%
Karen Bass
2.24
x
43
%
US Elections
How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win this year?
$0 vol
At least 1
--
0
%
At least 12
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Texas Railroad Commissioner winner
$2 vol
Bo French
--
2
%
Jon Rosenthal
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Texas House of Representatives winner
$2 vol
Democratic Party
--
2
%
Republican Party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Texas State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Texas State House winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Nevada State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Nevada State Assembly winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Florida State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Florida State House winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Georgia State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Georgia State House winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Wisconsin State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Wisconsin State Assembly winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Ohio State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Ohio State House winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
New Hampshire State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
New Hampshire State House winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
North Carolina State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
North Carolina State House winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Minnesota State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Minnesota State House winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Michigan State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Michigan State House winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Projected flip races
To Democrat
To Republican
AZ-01
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
99%
1%
DEM
D 99%
REP
R 1%
AZ-06
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
99%
1%
DEM
D 99%
REP
R 1%
CA-22
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
99%
1%
DEM
D 99%
REP
R 1%
AZ-02
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
CA-41
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
97%
3%
DEM
D 97%
REP
R 3%
Show all 23 markets
Most traded
TX-15
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
3%
97%
DEM
D 3%
REP
R 97%
PA-08
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
96%
4%
DEM
D 96%
REP
R 4%
MT-01
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
30%
70%
DEM
D 30%
REP
R 70%
WA-08
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
NJ-07
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
42%
58%
DEM
D 42%
REP
R 58%
NY-19
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
1%
99%
DEM
D 1%
REP
R 99%
VA-07
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
CA-03
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
NC-01
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
CA-49
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
40%
60%
DEM
D 40%
REP
R 60%
CA-41
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
97%
3%
DEM
D 97%
REP
R 3%
CA-45
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
OH-13
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
ME-02
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
CA-47
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
TX-28
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
PA-07
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
NY-22
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
MI-07
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
MI-03
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
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