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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Peru
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Peru
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats have a 62% chance to control the Senate

Early forecasts · 34 days to Election
46DemocratsDem seats
51 to win
51to win
RepublicansRep seats53
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 6
DColorado99%DGeorgia92%DMassachusetts99%DNorth Carolina92%DOregon97%DVirginia97%

Likely Democratic

Total 1
DNew Hampshire86%

Lean Democratic

Total 5
DAlaska71%DMaine60%DMichigan72%DOhio61%DTexas60%

Toss-up

Total 1Dem 0Rep 1
RIowa55%

Lean Republican

Total 3
RAlabama72%RKansas66%RNebraska71%

Likely Republican

Total 3
RFlorida87%RSouth Carolina87%RWest Virginia90%

Safe Republican

Total 16
RArkansas96%RDelaware99%RIdaho96%RIllinois99%RKentucky96%RLouisiana90%RMinnesota96%RMississippi96%RMontana95%RNew Jersey96%RNew Mexico96%ROklahoma96%RRhode Island99%RSouth Dakota98%RTennessee99%RWyoming99%

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

45
46
$437,905 vol10 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

Above 57
Below 45
$11,127 vol15 markets
Senate

Which Senate race will be the closest next year?

Florida
Florida
Florida
Louisiana
$107 vol20 markets
Senate

Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)

48
56
$53 vol14 markets
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 2
Exactly 3
$20 vol6 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

Ken Paxton and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$18 vol6 markets
Senate

How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 2
5 or more
$18 vol6 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Above 57
Below 53
$15 vol7 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Cornyn defeats Talarico
Paxton defeats Talarico
$13 vol4 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Graham Platner wins
Republican defeats Graham Platner
$12 vol4 markets

More markets

142 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

$197,655,992 vol
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
1.67x
Karen Bass
2.24x
US Elections

How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win this year?

$0 vol
At least 1
--
At least 12
--
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$2 vol
Bo French
--
Jon Rosenthal
--
Other US Elections

Texas House of Representatives winner

$2 vol
Democratic Party
--
Republican Party
--
Other US Elections

Texas State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
--
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Texas State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
--
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Nevada State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
--
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Nevada State Assembly winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
--
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Florida State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
--
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Florida State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
--
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Georgia State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Georgia State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Wisconsin State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Wisconsin State Assembly winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Ohio State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Ohio State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

New Hampshire State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

New Hampshire State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

North Carolina State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

North Carolina State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Minnesota State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Minnesota State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Michigan State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Michigan State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Republican partyRepublican
59%
41%
Maine
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
60%
40%
Ohio
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
60%
40%
Michigan
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
73%
27%
Georgia
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
90%
10%
Iowa
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
45%
55%
Kansas
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
34%
66%
New Hampshire
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
85%
15%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
97%
3%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
91%
9%
South Carolina
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
15%
85%
Kentucky
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
57%
43%
Alabama
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
5%
95%
Virginia
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
Idaho
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
50%
50%
New Mexico
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
80%
20%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
29%
71%
Minnesota
D
Democratic (DFL) partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
Tennessee
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
2%
98%
West Virginia
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
71%
29%
1–5 of 35
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